Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10188

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.51, p 0.160). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10187, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10188
    25 Oct 2026, 22:47 UTC

    LNPEP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLNPEP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfe8aa96c3a072fb2

    discovery+0.51 p=0.160 n=9

    replication+0.43 p=0.251 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.51, p 0.160)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a902f512439b30717d4ebc32…
    follows 4b584ca3ad6d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10188: LNPEP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.39 (p 0.111, n 18), 95% CI -0.10 to +0.72. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.45 (p 0.063, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.46 (p 0.052, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.31 to +0.46, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.39 (p 0.111, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LNPEP in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.