Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10147

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.33, p 0.386). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10146, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10147
    25 Oct 2026, 21:52 UTC

    MAD1L1

    microglia, braak

    predictionMAD1L1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered845662e970b7e9a0

    discovery-0.33 p=0.386 n=9

    replication-0.26 p=0.504 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.33, p 0.386)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c468bbc41df41f5f69cd4534…
    follows 2e17b9dde408…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10147: MAD1L1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.27 (p 0.273, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.22. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.23 (p 0.360, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.35 (p 0.150, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.44 to -0.18, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.27 (p 0.273, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAD1L1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.