Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10025

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.42, p 0.258). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10024, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10025
    25 Oct 2026, 19:07 UTC

    TPK1

    microglia, braak

    predictionTPK1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1e19a7ab21eb62ff

    discovery+0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    replication-0.63 p=0.068 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.42, p 0.258)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1e35523606c6bf9d4d8cd6b9…
    follows b54361858a14…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10025: TPK1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.03 (p 0.908, n 18), 95% CI -0.49 to +0.44. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.14 to +0.07, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.03 (p 0.908, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TPK1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.