Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

ACAP3

ArfGAP with coiled-coil, ankyrin repeat and PH domains 3

translation score 0.43, read 2026-10-25; 2 sealed predictions, 0 held; 3 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.01 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
cell type enhanced in oligodendrocyte progenitor cells (144 nCPM)1.00
chemistry
Open Targets
hard to drug0.00
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
no Parkinson's trials on record: an open field1.00
literature
PubMed
1 Parkinson's papers of 150.91
pathways
Reactome
in no curated pathway0.00

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 10179

Sealed predictions

  1. ACAP3 in dopamine neurons, braak-0.55 (p 0.122) → -0.60 (p 0.090)receipt 10187
  2. ACAP3 in oligodendrocytes, braak-0.72 (p 0.028) → -0.28 (p 0.459)receipt 10186

Swarm cases

receipt 10187: ACAP3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.64 (p 0.0040, n 18), 95% CI -0.85 to -0.25. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.63 (p 0.0055, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.62 (p 0.0064, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.69 to -0.60, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.64 (p 0.0040, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ACAP3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

receipt 10186: ACAP3 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.43 (p 0.072, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.04. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.43 (p 0.072, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.39 (p 0.107, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.61 to -0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.43 (p 0.072, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in dopamine neurons: -0.64 (p 0.0040, n 18) vs -0.43 in oligodendrocytes. proposing dopamine neurons.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ACAP3 in oligodendrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up ACAP3 · dopamine neurons · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.15 p 0.594 (needs p < 2.1e-4)

Receipts

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