Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0999

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.35, p 0.361). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 998, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0999
    17 Oct 2026, 11:44 UTC

    SLC6A3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC6A3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf035a70577bd948d

    discovery-0.35 p=0.361 n=9

    replication-0.41 p=0.273 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.35, p 0.361)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ff19fac57429244a45833d0e…
    follows 9df8004ab480…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0999: SLC6A3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.17 (p 0.498, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.32. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.20 (p 0.424, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.14 (p 0.585, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.35 to -0.06, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.68 (p 0.0020, n 18) vs -0.17 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC6A3 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up SLC6A3 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.70 p 0.013 (needs p < 0.0013)