Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9945

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.19, p 0.630). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9944, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9945
    25 Oct 2026, 17:22 UTC

    ANOS1

    microglia, braak

    predictionANOS1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6ad577b0c43af3fe

    discovery+0.19 p=0.630 n=9

    replication+0.36 p=0.336 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.19, p 0.630)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6aeb431abb77c0dbb340a6b4…
    follows da9082b5781a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9945: ANOS1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.31 (p 0.218, n 18), 95% CI -0.19 to +0.68. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.35 (p 0.159, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.36 (p 0.142, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.23 to +0.47, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.31 (p 0.218, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ANOS1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.