Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9920

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.329). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9919, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9920
    25 Oct 2026, 16:52 UTC

    GGTLC1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGGTLC1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0879e03e9e6dcdc5

    discovery-0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    replication-0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.329)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    acfc8b3c878a2cc687e5350d…
    follows 144c25568d21…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9920: GGTLC1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.27 (p 0.281, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.23. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.31 (p 0.214, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.29 (p 0.243, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.42 to -0.18, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.27 (p 0.281, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GGTLC1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.