Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9916

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.02, p 0.965). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9915, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9916
    25 Oct 2026, 16:46 UTC

    TOMM40L

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTOMM40L in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda7b0bc076f627c80

    discovery+0.02 p=0.965 n=9

    replication-0.17 p=0.670 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.02, p 0.965)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    323684ba5832bb47222db36f…
    follows 5b8c8bf53cfd…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9916: TOMM40L in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.12 (p 0.633, n 18), 95% CI -0.56 to +0.37. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.11 (p 0.677, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.15 (p 0.555, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.22 to -0.03, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.12 (p 0.633, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TOMM40L in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.