Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9872

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.553). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9871, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9872
    25 Oct 2026, 15:46 UTC

    C1QB

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionC1QB in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbedadf9d8d3f1ac2

    discovery-0.23 p=0.553 n=9

    replication-0.14 p=0.714 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.553)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c6118b864f16e4678404799d…
    follows 56742af93bf2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9872: C1QB in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.11 (p 0.652, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.37. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.08 (p 0.754, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.18 (p 0.465, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.24 to -0.02, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.11 (p 0.652, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for C1QB in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.