Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9866

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.485). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9865, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9866
    25 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC

    RPSA

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRPSA in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7b2882c9e39f437e

    discovery-0.27 p=0.485 n=9

    replication+0.19 p=0.618 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.485)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    461be6b24d72fa1e6f2059d9…
    follows 0f8ec966f100…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9866: RPSA in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.06 (p 0.807, n 18), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.51. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.12 (p 0.646, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.06 to +0.16, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.06 (p 0.807, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RPSA in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.