Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9795

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.61, p 0.084). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9794, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9795
    25 Oct 2026, 14:04 UTC

    SASH3

    microglia, braak

    predictionSASH3 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredddd07d4dda4cb31f

    discovery-0.61 p=0.084 n=9

    replication-0.45 p=0.227 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.61, p 0.084)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    90f78ba6265240b37c08ce04…
    follows 5148cb63aa7e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9795: SASH3 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.46 (p 0.056, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.01. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.51 (p 0.032, n 18). holds up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.45 (p 0.059, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.64 to -0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.46 (p 0.056, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SASH3 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.