Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9792

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.927). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9791, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9792
    25 Oct 2026, 13:59 UTC

    SMAD5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSMAD5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda43b6f43f4ba3818

    discovery+0.04 p=0.927 n=9

    replication+0.46 p=0.214 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.927)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9ea3e6dde727a93b499ca6d3…
    follows 6144b4306417…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9792: SMAD5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.37 (p 0.130, n 18), 95% CI -0.12 to +0.71. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.36 (p 0.142, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.37 (p 0.130, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.31 to +0.57, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.37 (p 0.130, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SMAD5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.