Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9780

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.946). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9779, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9780
    25 Oct 2026, 13:42 UTC

    ELF1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionELF1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5f0a2dcf27b0b3c4

    discovery+0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    replication+0.30 p=0.428 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.946)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1fb89d38a7766ef282721e6f…
    follows bb5a2502be08…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9780: ELF1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.969, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.03 (p 0.908, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.16 to +0.05, sign flips 12; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ELF1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.