Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9739

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.53, p 0.146). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9738, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9739
    25 Oct 2026, 12:44 UTC

    CLCN2

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionCLCN2 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered06bd8774706bb178

    discovery-0.53 p=0.146 n=9

    replication-0.23 p=0.560 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.53, p 0.146)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6c371704ec76b7a3aa6f4b03…
    follows 03a3b82cf9fc…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9739: CLCN2 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.37 (p 0.135, n 18), 95% CI -0.71 to +0.12. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.33 (p 0.179, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.26 (p 0.289, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.54 to -0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.37 (p 0.135, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CLCN2 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.