Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0973

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.487). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 972, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0973
    17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC

    FUZ

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFUZ in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered83e2cdd157bd2948

    discovery-0.27 p=0.487 n=9

    replication-0.60 p=0.089 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.487)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4863f7e50955e5e552f677f5…
    follows 1148db331d36…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0973: FUZ in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.43 (p 0.075, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.05. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.53 (p 0.025, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.54 to -0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.43 (p 0.075, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FUZ in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.