Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9711

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.42, p 0.262). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9710, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9711
    25 Oct 2026, 12:08 UTC

    RARB

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRARB in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda69510fe4a8235b1

    discovery+0.42 p=0.262 n=9

    replication+0.51 p=0.160 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.42, p 0.262)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3e3d5929900b9a007cc31ed8…
    follows 32d8126f59e0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9711: RARB in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.53 (p 0.025, n 18), 95% CI +0.08 to +0.80. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.58 (p 0.012, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.56 (p 0.015, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.46 to +0.67, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.53 (p 0.025, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RARB in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.