Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9694

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.230). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9693, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9694
    25 Oct 2026, 11:44 UTC

    SELENBP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSELENBP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede2cb590229c7574d

    discovery-0.45 p=0.230 n=9

    replication-0.68 p=0.042 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.230)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    124bca0ff93a09ef0a118693…
    follows 281456084e60…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9694: SELENBP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.46 (p 0.056, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.01. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.47 (p 0.047, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.62 (p 0.0060, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.54 to -0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.46 (p 0.056, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SELENBP1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.