Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9662

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.57, p 0.108). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9661, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9662
    25 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC

    SENP3

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionSENP3 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered621cf5d10da031b7

    discovery+0.57 p=0.108 n=9

    replication+0.53 p=0.145 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.57, p 0.108)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d01f8076b83ffbeb8c298918…
    follows b6c37670174c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9662: SENP3 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.49 (p 0.038, n 18), 95% CI +0.03 to +0.78. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.50 (p 0.034, n 18). holds up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.58 (p 0.013, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.43 to +0.57, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.49 (p 0.038, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SENP3 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.