Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9640

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.407). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9639, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9640
    25 Oct 2026, 10:32 UTC

    NFASC

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionNFASC in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered81e0d70a0f1b477a

    discovery-0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    replication-0.67 p=0.048 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.407)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    703943f41922973dcb8d3e17…
    follows 91cd0b0aa95e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9640: NFASC in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.56 (p 0.016, n 18), 95% CI -0.81 to -0.12. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.56 (p 0.016, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.56 (p 0.016, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.69 to -0.50, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.56 (p 0.016, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NFASC in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.