Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9638

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.795). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9637, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9638
    25 Oct 2026, 10:29 UTC

    MT1X

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMT1X in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered63b0b8bedecf3fff

    discovery-0.10 p=0.795 n=9

    replication-0.02 p=0.965 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.795)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b1227d2ff1db15b296627d23…
    follows 2f6fad62aaf7…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9638: MT1X in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.03 (p 0.915, n 18), 95% CI -0.49 to +0.45. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.02 (p 0.949, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.01 (p 0.976, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.16 to +0.08, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors -0.03 (p 0.915, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MT1X in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.