Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9636

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.03, p 0.947). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9635, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9636
    25 Oct 2026, 10:27 UTC

    CYP20A1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCYP20A1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5892fecc6212093a

    discovery-0.03 p=0.947 n=9

    replication+0.11 p=0.784 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.03, p 0.947)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3d420d5f5f4a661c34b5c23d…
    follows 10b09f6ea865…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9636: CYP20A1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.02 (p 0.928, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.874, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.12 (p 0.633, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.09 to +0.15, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors +0.02 (p 0.928, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CYP20A1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.