Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9629

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.63, p 0.068). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9628, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9629
    25 Oct 2026, 10:18 UTC

    AMPH

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionAMPH in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5471c953d80de269

    discovery+0.63 p=0.068 n=9

    replication+0.56 p=0.114 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.63, p 0.068)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4196fff016ccbfe6def8599d…
    follows d64c162ddc49…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9629: AMPH in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.55 (p 0.017, n 18), 95% CI +0.12 to +0.81. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.55 (p 0.019, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.62 (p 0.0062, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.49 to +0.67, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.55 (p 0.017, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for AMPH in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.