Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9595

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.55, p 0.128). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9594, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9595
    25 Oct 2026, 09:32 UTC

    DNAH11

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDNAH11 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4f94d6a11ac6e16d

    discovery+0.55 p=0.128 n=9

    replication+0.52 p=0.154 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.55, p 0.128)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b443a98faaf7e6f09e4a0d5f…
    follows 3fa9ce72dec7…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9595: DNAH11 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.47 (p 0.050, n 18), 95% CI +0.00 to +0.77. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.50 (p 0.033, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.51 (p 0.031, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.40 to +0.61, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.47 (p 0.050, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DNAH11 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.