Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9530

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.42, p 0.255). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9529, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9530
    25 Oct 2026, 08:09 UTC

    NMBR

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNMBR in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered55f73f87fc224340

    discovery+0.42 p=0.255 n=9

    replication+0.51 p=0.163 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.42, p 0.255)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    de8851f39cc39bd001ff6922…
    follows 8f250d6eba7d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9530: NMBR in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.38 (p 0.116, n 18), 95% CI -0.10 to +0.72. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.37 (p 0.132, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.48 (p 0.042, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.32 to +0.56, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.38 (p 0.116, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NMBR in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.