Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9510

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.859). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9509, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9510
    25 Oct 2026, 07:42 UTC

    HIBCH

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHIBCH in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede6a60fa1bf7fd05b

    discovery+0.07 p=0.859 n=9

    replication+0.07 p=0.855 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.859)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    650fa5e22e5f6fc57e7c3e2b…
    follows 0f677c7a007e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9510: HIBCH in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.10 (p 0.690, n 18), 95% CI -0.38 to +0.54. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.10 (p 0.702, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.02 to +0.23, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.10 (p 0.690, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HIBCH in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.