Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0095

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r +0.46, p 0.087). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 94, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0095
    16 Oct 2026, 16:25 UTC

    CHCHD2

    dopamine neurons, resilience

    predictionCHCHD2 in dopamine neurons differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)

    registered6e202ed54fb9bfa1

    discovery+0.46 p=0.087 n=30

    replication+0.20 p=0.497 n=25

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r +0.46, p 0.087)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7a74f3a0baef497a819f1fb4…
    follows 3e534473647e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0095: CHCHD2 in dopamine neurons, resilience

power
full sample +0.34 (p 0.081, n 55), 95% CI +0.09 to +0.56. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: +0.36 (p 0.064, n 55). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.12 (p 0.542); controlling for it: +0.39 (p 0.048, n 55). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.30 to +0.41, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.35 (p 0.087, n 46). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)" for CHCHD2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.