Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9484

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.665). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9483, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9484
    25 Oct 2026, 07:06 UTC

    E2F2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionE2F2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredceb011c0d0568e19

    discovery-0.17 p=0.665 n=9

    replication-0.25 p=0.517 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.665)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    95060b97d703a7e6f20913d3…
    follows 34fd1d48271d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9484: E2F2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.24 (p 0.328, n 18), 95% CI -0.64 to +0.25. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.28 (p 0.269, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.29 (p 0.250, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.40 to -0.15, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for E2F2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.