Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0948

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.68 p 0.042; held-out +0.25 p 0.517). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 947, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0948
    17 Oct 2026, 10:24 UTC

    QKI

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionQKI in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8275e17017e57217

    discovery+0.68 p=0.042 n=9

    replication+0.25 p=0.517 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.68 p 0.042; held-out +0.25 p 0.517)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    31affb94a276b0cde71872ab…
    follows 34cc6cb550a9…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0948: QKI in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.45 (p 0.063, n 18), 95% CI -0.03 to +0.76. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.42 (p 0.082, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.46 (p 0.054, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.38 to +0.60, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.45 (p 0.063, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for QKI in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.