Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9449

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.802). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9448, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9449
    25 Oct 2026, 06:19 UTC

    TMEM63A

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionTMEM63A in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered76866b3d8d396e97

    discovery+0.10 p=0.802 n=9

    replication-0.60 p=0.086 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.802)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6d9c505f47e3986fdf2628ba…
    follows f53e336e19c8…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9449: TMEM63A in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.24 (p 0.346, n 18), 95% CI -0.63 to +0.26. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.30 (p 0.221, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.38 (p 0.125, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.41 to -0.13, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.24 (p 0.346, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TMEM63A in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.