Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9411

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.54, p 0.137). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9410, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9411
    25 Oct 2026, 05:29 UTC

    SLC31A2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionSLC31A2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede1e2bd137655c296

    discovery-0.54 p=0.137 n=9

    replication+0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.54, p 0.137)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    04c85a5668a0a7e01405b5e5…
    follows b70450a89fe7…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9411: SLC31A2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.09 (p 0.709, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.39. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.14 (p 0.573, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.26 (p 0.294, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.20 to +0.04, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors -0.09 (p 0.709, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC31A2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.