Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9400

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.58, p 0.102). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9399, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9400
    25 Oct 2026, 05:16 UTC

    CDIP1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionCDIP1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered064ef129734bd428

    discovery+0.58 p=0.102 n=9

    replication+0.44 p=0.234 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.58, p 0.102)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    aabcb79441f21daf24facc48…
    follows 5e2c469ed6b1…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9400: CDIP1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.56 (p 0.017, n 18), 95% CI +0.12 to +0.81. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.55 (p 0.018, n 18). holds up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.46 (p 0.056, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.49 to +0.70, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.56 (p 0.017, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CDIP1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.