Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9393

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.849). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9392, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9393
    25 Oct 2026, 05:05 UTC

    P2RX1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionP2RX1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb482b4e4c12f673e

    discovery-0.07 p=0.849 n=9

    replication-0.53 p=0.145 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.849)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    47869938c611e1e3359801da…
    follows 0186016f7138…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9393: P2RX1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.54 (p 0.019, n 18), 95% CI -0.81 to -0.10. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.50 (p 0.033, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.61 (p 0.0075, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.72 to -0.49, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.54 (p 0.019, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.59 (p 0.0099, n 18) vs -0.54 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for P2RX1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up P2RX1 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort: not measured