Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9384

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.222). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9383, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9384
    25 Oct 2026, 04:51 UTC

    GRAMD1C

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionGRAMD1C in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbcd7ac0fda882b15

    discovery-0.45 p=0.222 n=9

    replication+0.28 p=0.467 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.222)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    46925ce10cdda5cc02bbe8e6…
    follows 2a93a0a7c77f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9384: GRAMD1C in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.976, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.07 (p 0.781, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.22 (p 0.389, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.12 to +0.10, sign flips 8; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.976, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GRAMD1C in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.