Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9345

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.232). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9344, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9345
    25 Oct 2026, 04:04 UTC

    ARHGAP30

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionARHGAP30 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda6e51662750af0fc

    discovery-0.44 p=0.232 n=9

    replication-0.69 p=0.038 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.232)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    feb026086c205bbcbf8cf6d6…
    follows 1f9449725406…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9345: ARHGAP30 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.61 (p 0.0072, n 18), 95% CI -0.84 to -0.20. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.62 (p 0.0060, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.61 (p 0.0075, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.67 to -0.56, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.61 (p 0.0072, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARHGAP30 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.