Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9212

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.502). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9211, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9212
    25 Oct 2026, 01:46 UTC

    NLGN4X

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionNLGN4X in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredda7b4de7ce49f8ba

    discovery-0.26 p=0.502 n=9

    replication+0.61 p=0.083 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.502)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d8d0620d6f07dc1f62520be1…
    follows 1d24fd13ad30…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9212: NLGN4X in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.05 (p 0.834, n 18), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.51. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.08 (p 0.748, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.05 (p 0.834, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.09 to +0.16, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.05 (p 0.834, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NLGN4X in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.