Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9209

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.14, p 0.720). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9208, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9209
    25 Oct 2026, 01:43 UTC

    LGR5

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionLGR5 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf3e07242b1b54551

    discovery+0.14 p=0.720 n=9

    replication-0.30 p=0.430 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.14, p 0.720)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3eb3e8995a305efa680130a5…
    follows e433038079cd…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9209: LGR5 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.741, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.21 (p 0.408, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.16 to +0.06, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.741, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LGR5 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.