Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9171

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.50, p 0.166). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9170, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9171
    25 Oct 2026, 00:45 UTC

    FGF19

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFGF19 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredecf64a89b4882b92

    discovery-0.50 p=0.166 n=9

    replication-0.21 p=0.581 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.50, p 0.166)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d70715720e8443e094f049b7…
    follows 10670efc6fcf…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9171: FGF19 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.34 (p 0.167, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.15. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.31 (p 0.218, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.33 (p 0.188, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.50 to -0.26, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.34 (p 0.167, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FGF19 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.