Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9141

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.38, p 0.309). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9140, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9141
    24 Oct 2026, 23:59 UTC

    EHD1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEHD1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda16a4ac5fe7221e2

    discovery-0.38 p=0.309 n=9

    replication-0.51 p=0.165 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.38, p 0.309)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4ce5ac5f90db35d120317cb1…
    follows b4ed504bc5fb…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9141: EHD1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.42 (p 0.082, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.06. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.42 (p 0.082, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.49 (p 0.039, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.52 to -0.35, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.42 (p 0.082, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.60 (p 0.0089, n 18) vs -0.42 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EHD1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up EHD1 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.47 p 0.091 (needs p < 2.3e-4)