Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9117

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.718). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9116, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9117
    24 Oct 2026, 23:26 UTC

    MTCH2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMTCH2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6c38563c804f7c65

    discovery-0.14 p=0.718 n=9

    replication+0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.718)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    866828d42ec471f93e474573…
    follows b32d49df1207…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9117: MTCH2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.00 (p 0.997, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.13 to +0.11, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors +0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MTCH2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.