Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9115

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.555). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9114, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9115
    24 Oct 2026, 23:23 UTC

    EPCAM

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEPCAM in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb624b95fa5c3a89c

    discovery-0.23 p=0.555 n=9

    replication+0.36 p=0.336 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.555)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9c7d8f8886573a6203096906…
    follows 6c4b7b91e9da…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9115: EPCAM in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.962, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.02 (p 0.935, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.09 to +0.16, sign flips 10; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.962, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EPCAM in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.