Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9113

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.53, p 0.145). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9112, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9113
    24 Oct 2026, 23:20 UTC

    SLC22A4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC22A4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered05e0b08e33c6b477

    discovery-0.53 p=0.145 n=9

    replication-0.39 p=0.304 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.53, p 0.145)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3c67bc2a5a4a6bb8c70cec71…
    follows b72905d78f39…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9113: SLC22A4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.48 (p 0.042, n 18), 95% CI -0.78 to -0.02. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.47 (p 0.047, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.56 (p 0.016, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.57 to -0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.48 (p 0.042, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC22A4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.