Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0910

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.72 p 0.028; held-out +0.37 p 0.324). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 909, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0910
    17 Oct 2026, 09:31 UTC

    ARPC4

    microglia, braak

    predictionARPC4 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered774adce9eeba9536

    discovery+0.72 p=0.028 n=9

    replication+0.37 p=0.324 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.72 p 0.028; held-out +0.37 p 0.324)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    98d08718755802d5cc461807…
    follows 47ed772b86bc…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0910: ARPC4 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.56 (p 0.016, n 18), 95% CI +0.12 to +0.81. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.55 (p 0.019, n 18). holds up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.56 (p 0.016, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.50 to +0.68, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.56 (p 0.016, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARPC4 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.