Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9059

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.790). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9058, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9059
    24 Oct 2026, 22:03 UTC

    STOML2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSTOML2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd457e050b36ea2b9

    discovery+0.10 p=0.790 n=9

    replication+0.35 p=0.360 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.790)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    338611218baa1ac954400a7c…
    follows 7f403fc90645…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9059: STOML2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.20 (p 0.429, n 18), 95% CI -0.30 to +0.61. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.13 (p 0.615, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.21 (p 0.413, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.09 to +0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.20 (p 0.429, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for STOML2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.