Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0904

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.70 p 0.034; held-out +0.11 p 0.778). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 903, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0904
    17 Oct 2026, 09:23 UTC

    NEK1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNEK1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4de3a0e197a67adf

    discovery+0.70 p=0.034 n=9

    replication+0.11 p=0.778 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.70 p 0.034; held-out +0.11 p 0.778)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    d20d56a48c80ce23b7ffb60f…
    follows 8587613a81cf…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0904: NEK1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.26 (p 0.306, n 18), 95% CI -0.24 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.32 (p 0.201, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.48 (p 0.045, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.16 to +0.40, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NEK1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.