Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9031

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.702). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9030, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9031
    24 Oct 2026, 21:22 UTC

    CRTC1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCRTC1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5f5b83011a34d5c6

    discovery-0.15 p=0.702 n=9

    replication-0.40 p=0.292 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.702)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c06745a5fd5a26c544291e9d…
    follows c92008aa4749…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9031: CRTC1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.36 (p 0.140, n 18), 95% CI -0.71 to +0.13. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.34 (p 0.167, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.51 (p 0.031, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.47 to -0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.36 (p 0.140, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.63 (p 0.0053, n 18) vs -0.36 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CRTC1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up CRTC1 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -1.00 p 3.8e-4 (needs p < 2.3e-4)