Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9021

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.233). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9020, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9021
    24 Oct 2026, 21:08 UTC

    IL10RA

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionIL10RA in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered91f3dc446fa86e57

    discovery-0.44 p=0.233 n=9

    replication-0.35 p=0.361 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.233)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7a8308164ad2966c12790445…
    follows e10011b31362…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9021: IL10RA in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.43 (p 0.077, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.05. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.44 (p 0.064, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.53 to -0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.43 (p 0.077, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IL10RA in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.