Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0902

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.22, p 0.569). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 901, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0902
    17 Oct 2026, 09:20 UTC

    GABRA3

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionGABRA3 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7b1661feebc7f417

    discovery-0.22 p=0.569 n=9

    replication+0.53 p=0.138 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.22, p 0.569)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ad506c377d2804a4ea9e0d35…
    follows 31ffdc512900…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0902: GABRA3 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.10 (p 0.702, n 18), 95% CI -0.39 to +0.54. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.26 (p 0.302, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.01 to +0.25, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors +0.10 (p 0.702, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GABRA3 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.