Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9006

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.591). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9005, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9006
    24 Oct 2026, 20:46 UTC

    BCAT1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionBCAT1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredaf8b2cc1c21e5d30

    discovery+0.21 p=0.591 n=9

    replication+0.69 p=0.041 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.591)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8156da2aeccf3c89cd9b0bfa…
    follows 7d846af64de9…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9006: BCAT1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.47 (p 0.047, n 18), 95% CI +0.01 to +0.77. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.46 (p 0.055, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.51 (p 0.029, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.39 to +0.55, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.47 (p 0.047, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BCAT1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.