Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9003

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.689). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9002, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9003
    24 Oct 2026, 20:40 UTC

    SAMD4A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSAMD4A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede9c1961a8b0caac0

    discovery+0.16 p=0.689 n=9

    replication-0.09 p=0.820 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.689)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0ef5a396e33e7b42e6e37268…
    follows c08b1bb1228c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9003: SAMD4A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.901, n 18), 95% CI -0.44 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.03 (p 0.908, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.11 (p 0.677, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.11 to +0.13, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SAMD4A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.