Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9000

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.406). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8999, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9000
    24 Oct 2026, 20:38 UTC

    CLEC5A

    microglia, braak

    predictionCLEC5A in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered99fb75ba5406d868

    discovery-0.32 p=0.406 n=9

    replication-0.70 p=0.035 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.406)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2397dbb0dd4f98bbce7e057b…
    follows e46b04b38b2a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9000: CLEC5A in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.57 (p 0.013, n 18), 95% CI -0.82 to -0.14. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.59 (p 0.011, n 18). holds up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.51 (p 0.031, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.69 to -0.51, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.57 (p 0.013, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CLEC5A in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.